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Analysis on the Impact of Seasonality on China’s Soybean Import Allocation

Lin Da-Yan 1, Zhu Jing2, Yang Fan 2, Aniah Dominic Avea 2, and Wu Guo-Song 3
1. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
3. College of Economics and Management, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an, China
Abstract—As the largest importing country of soybean in the world, China's import allocation may be affected by seasonal export ability of soybean of imports-sources. Based on exporters’ decision-making behavior, this paper analyzed the impact of seasonality on a country's import allocation theoretically and empirically, using monthly data of China and three major soybean exporters from the year 2010 to 2013. Empirical results show that seasonality is an important determinant of import allocation, one country's market share in China’s soybean importation is significantly higher in harvest seasons than in non-harvest seasons. Changes on soybean import allocation are the result of dynamic development of soybean’s comparative advantage of export countries. Adapting to this, China can make full use of seasonal complementarities and comparative advantages in both hemispheres, integrate world resources effectively and achieve stable domestic supply of food and long-term food security.

Index Terms—seasonality, import allocation, soybean

Cite: Lin Da-Yan, Zhu Jing, Yang Fan, Aniah Dominic Avea, and Wu Guo-Song, "Analysis on the Impact of Seasonality on China’s Soybean Import Allocation," Journal of Advanced Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 5, pp. 368-375, September 2016. doi: 10.12720/joams.4.5.368-375
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