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Role of Demand Forecasting and Lead Time on Waste in Supply Chain: A Case Study in Diyala Health Sector-Iraq

Waleed A. Al-Zaidi 1, Asaad J. Al-Karawi 2, and Ahmed Kh. Al-Zuhairi 2
1. Szent István University, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Department of Business Economics and Management, Godoolo- Hungary
2. General Directorate of Education in Diyala, Department of Financial Affairs, Diyala-Iraq Middle Technical University, Baquba Technical Institute, Department of Material Management, Diyala-Iraq
Abstract—Supply Chain Management (SCM) in the healthcare sector is extremely important since it provides all requirements of patients' service. So, this paper tries to illustrate the role of demand forecasting and lead time on waste. The demand forecasting has to be precise as much as possible to avoid surplus and shortage of medicines and pharmaceutical supplies which cause several kinds of waste like inventory, over-processes, waiting and transportation. So, the main aim of this study is to figure out types of waste which can be created in pharmaceutical supply chain because of demand forecasting and lead time, and present some recommendations to improve the current situation. This study has been conducted by case study in the pharmaceutical supply chain in Diyala province-Iraq by unstructured interviews with 15 drug store and pharmacy directors, and website. The results refer to that using demand forecasting for long-term causes surplus or shortage in some types of drugs and pharmaceutical supplies because of ambiguous future after long time, especially when the security situation is unstable which cause several types of waste in supply chain such as, inventory, over-processes, waiting and transportation which affect health service and economy at the same time, also, lack of use of modern information and communication systems affect visibility, consequently, forecasting accuracy.
Index Terms—demand forecasting, waste, case study, pharmaceutical, Diyala health sector, Iraq.

Cite: Waleed A. Al-Zaidi, Asaad J. Al-Karawi, and Ahmed Kh. Al-Zuhairi, "Role of Demand Forecasting and Lead Time on Waste in Supply Chain: A Case Study in Diyala Health Sector-Iraq" Journal of Advanced Management Science, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 155-160, September 2018. doi: 10.18178/joams.6.3.155-160
 
 
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