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Gold Price Forecasting Using ARIMA Model

Banhi Guha and Gautam Bandyopadhyay
Department of Management Studies, National Institute of Technology, Durgapur, India

Abstract—This study gives an inside view of the application of ARIMA time series model to forecast the future Gold price in Indian browser based on past data from November 2003 to January 2014 to mitigate the risk in purchases of gold. Hence, to give guideline for the investor when to buy or sell the yellow metal. This financial instrument has gained a lot of momentum in recent past as Indian economy is curbed with factors like changing political scenario, global clues & high inflation etc, so researcher, investors and speculators are in search of different financial instrument to minimize their risk by portfolio diversification. Gold earlier was only purchased at the time of marriage or other rituals in India but now it has gained importance in the eyes of investors also, so it has become necessary to predict the price of Gold with suitable method.

Index Terms—gold price, ARIMA, forecasting

Cite: Banhi Guha and Gautam Bandyopadhyay, "Gold Price Forecasting Using ARIMA Model," Journal of Advanced Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 117-121, March 2016. doi: 10.12720/joams.4.2.117-121
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