Abstract—This study examines the impact of the Middle East crisis on voyage charter rates for Handymax bulk carriers operating between Mersin (Turkey) and Apapa, Lagos. Using secondary time-series data from January 2023 to June 2024, the study employs descriptive statistics, ANOVA, and trend analysis to compare pre-crisis and crisis-period freight dynamics and to forecast future rates. Results show a significant increase in average freight rates from $1,396.67/ton in the pre-crisis period to $1,894.44/ton during the crisis, indicating heightened market volatility driven by geopolitical risks, higher insurance costs, and longer voyage routes. While trend analysis indicates upward movements in both periods, these were not statistically significant, suggesting that the observed increases are primarily crisis-induced. Forecasts for July 2024 to June 2025 project continued elevated rates, with potential peaks exceeding $2,075/ton if disruptions persist. The findings highlight broader economic implications, including increased import costs and inflationary pressures in West Africa. The study concludes that geopolitical instability in the Middle East significantly affects global freight markets and recommends policy measures such as tax reliefs, investment in regional shipping capacity, and strategic import reserves to mitigate these impacts.
 

Keywords—middle east crisis, container shipping trade, freight rate, west African trade routes

Cite: Chiarizolam Ekeke, Theophilus C. Nwokedi, John F. Ojutalayo, Yusuf N. Baba, Lazarus Okoroji, Charles O. Anyadiegwu, Enyinna Gregory C. Enyinna, and Ibeawuchi I. Echeme, "Effects of Middle East Crisis on Dry Bulk Carriers Charter Rates between Port of Mersin and West African ," Journal of Advanced Management Science, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 52-62, 2026.