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Reliability Analysis and Failure Prediction of Construction Equipment with Time Series Models

Qing Fan and Hongqin Fan
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong

Abstract—Reliability and availability of the equipment or plants used in construction and civil engineering field is significant issue for all stakeholders. Unexpected breakdown and repairs could cause serious consequences such as extra cost and project period extension. Therefore, it is necessary to study the reliability of the construction equipment and predict the failures in time with a reasonable degree of accuracy to prevent such losses. This paper adopts time series modelling methods to analyze and forecast the failures and other reliability characteristics such as the expected number of failures per interval and Mean time between failures (MTBF). It is found that time series models is a viable alternative that gives satisfactory results for both point and interval failure predictions in terms of its predictive performance for construction equipment reliability.

Index Terms—construction equipment, failure prediction, reliability, time series, maintenance, ARIMA

Cite: Qing Fan and Hongqin Fan, "Reliability Analysis and Failure Prediction of Construction Equipment with Time Series Models," Journal of Advanced Management Science, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 203-210, September 2015. doi: 10.12720/joams.3.3.203-210
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